6/18/2012

抢银行的平均回报可以说是一文不值

Why robbing banks for a living is a bad idea

In an article for Significance Magazine, economists Barry Reilly, Neil Rickman and Robert Witt explain why robbing banks stinks as a profession.

The return on an average bank robbery is, frankly, rubbish. It is not unimaginable wealth. It is a very modest £12 706.60 per person per raid. Indeed, it is so low that it is not worth the banks' while to spend as little as £4500 per cashier position at every branch on rising screens to deter them.

抢银行的平均回报可以说是一文不值。其回报没有想象中的那么高了,收益差不多在每人每次12 706.6英镑。

这收益实在是太低,低到连银行都不愿在每个分所每个柜台花费4500英镑去添置隔离玻璃来阻止这样的抢劫。



A single bank raid, even a successful one, is not going to keep our would-be robber in a life of luxury. It is not going to keep him long in a life of any kind. Given that the average UK wage for those in full-time employment is around £26 000, it will give him a modest lifestyle for no more than 6 months. If he decides to make a career of it, and robs two banks a year to make a sub-average income, his chances of eventually getting caught will increase: at 0.8 probability per raid, after three raids or a year and a half his odds of remaining at large are 0.8×0.8×0.8=0.512; after four raids he is more likely than not to be inside. As a profitable occupation, bank robbery leaves a lot to be desired.


单次银行抢劫,就算是很成功的一次,也不会让劫匪过上奢侈的生活,亦不会令其度过一生。在英国,一名全职雇员的年薪大约是26 000英镑。抢银行所得能让劫匪过上体面生活不超过半年。

如果他决定以此谋生的话,且每年抢两次以达到社会平均收入,被抓的几率会大大提高。

Be sure to read the full article for more details on the varying gains and losses when the team is bigger and whether or not a gun is used. Spoiler: an additional member to the robbing team raises the expected haul by about £9,000, and the use of a firearm raises the expected output by about £10,000. Just don't get arrested.

[via Ars Technica]

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Sincerely,
Yours

Rocky May
China Gezhouba Group Company